The Prediction Markets

Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026

Closed
Oct 10, 2026
Traded
$29K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 10, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Can Xue
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Can Xue
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Anne Carson
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Carson
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gerald Murnane
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gerald Murnane
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexis Wright
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexis Wright
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
César Aira
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
César Aira
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cristina Rivera Garza
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cristina Rivera Garza
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Kalshi
Amitav Ghosh
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amitav Ghosh
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mircea Cărtărescu
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mircea Cărtărescu
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Thomas Pynchon
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Pynchon
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Margaret Atwood
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Margaret Atwood
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$919
Trade this on Kalshi
Haruki Murakami
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haruki Murakami
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Salman Rushdie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 377 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salman Rushdie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Nobel Foundation

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Can Xue
  • Anne Carson
  • Gerald Murnane

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026". Can Xue last traded at 15%. Next is Anne Carson at 14%. $29K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Oct 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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