The Prediction Markets

North Carolina's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Ross, 28+ pts 93.2%

Next is Ross, 31+ pts at 91%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ross, 28+ pts
93.2%
Kalshi 93.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross, 28+ pts
Last price
93.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97.5¢
Sell Yes
93.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Ross, 31+ pts
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross, 31+ pts
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$119
Trade this on Kalshi
Ross, 34+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross, 34+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Ross, 37+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross, 37+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Ross, 40+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross, 40+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Ross, 43+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross, 43+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Ross, 46+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross, 46+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45-50%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ross, 49+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross, 49+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 40-45%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50-55%
14.2%
Polymarket 14.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $617 (6.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
14.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.2¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$617 (6.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ross, 52+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross, 52+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 55%+
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55%+
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-25%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-25%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-15%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-15%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ross, 28+ pts
  • Ross, 31+ pts
  • Ross, 34+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ross, 28+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina's 2nd District margin of victory". Ross, 28+ pts leads at 93.2%. Next is Ross, 31+ pts at 91%. $18K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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