The Prediction Markets

Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 25 days
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 74% 98%

Next is Above 78% at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 74%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 74%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
2¢
Volume
$529
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 78%
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 78%
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 88%
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 88%
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$762
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 84%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 84%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 70%
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70%
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$699
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 86%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 86%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 72%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 72%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 76%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 76%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 90%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 80%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 82%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 82%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 92%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 92%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenRouter - Open / Closed

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 74%
  • Above 78%
  • Above 88%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)". Above 74% leads at 98%. Next is Above 78% at 77%. $13K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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