The Prediction Markets

Open vs. Closed Token market share (Vercel) on Oct 22, 2026

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 18 hours
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 47.3% 99%

Next is Above 51.9% at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 47.3%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 47.3%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 51.9%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 51.9%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 59.7%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 59.7%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$332
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 53.7%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 53.7%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 54.9%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 54.9%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 61.9%
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 61.9%
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$740
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 63.8%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 63.8%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$652
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 66.5%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 66.5%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 68.2%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 68.2%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 47.3%
  • Above 51.9%
  • Above 59.7%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Open vs. Closed Token market share (Vercel) on Oct 22, 2026". Above 47.3% leads at 99%. Next is Above 51.9% at 99%. $13K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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