The Prediction Markets

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 8, 2026

Closed
Oct 9, 2026
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 9, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 49.2%
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, 382 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 49.2%
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 55.2%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 382 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 55.2%
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58.1%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 382 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58.1%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 62.2%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 382 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 62.2%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$710
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 66.8%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 382 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 66.8%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$918
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 68.7%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 382 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 68.7%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$780
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 69.7%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 382 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 69.7%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 71.3%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 382 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 71.3%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 74.9%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 382 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 74.9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 49.2%
  • Above 55.2%
  • Above 58.1%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 8, 2026". Above 49.2% last traded at 75.5%. Next is Above 55.2% at 60%. $13K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Oct 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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