The Prediction Markets

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
53 min ago
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What the markets expect

Above 450T tokens 99%

Next is Above 500T tokens at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 53 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 450T tokens
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 53 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 450T tokens
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 500T tokens
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 53 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500T tokens
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 575T tokens
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 53 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 575T tokens
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 600T tokens
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 53 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 600T tokens
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
91¢
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 625T tokens
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 53 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 625T tokens
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
88¢
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 550T tokens
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 53 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 550T tokens
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 675T tokens
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 675T tokens
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$979
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 650T tokens
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 650T tokens
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 750T tokens
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 750T tokens
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 700T tokens
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 700T tokens
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 850T tokens
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 850T tokens
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800T tokens
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 53 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800T tokens
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 53 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenRouter - AI Model Rankings

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 450T tokens
  • Above 500T tokens
  • Above 575T tokens

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "OpenRouter AI token usage in October". Above 450T tokens leads at 99%. Next is Above 500T tokens at 99%. $13K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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