The Prediction Markets

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$17K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 156T tokens 99%

Next is Above 160T tokens at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 156T tokens
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 156T tokens
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160T tokens
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160T tokens
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 162T tokens
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 162T tokens
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 176T tokens
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 176T tokens
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 172T tokens
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 172T tokens
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 164T tokens
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 164T tokens
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 178T tokens
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 178T tokens
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 168T tokens
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 168T tokens
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 158T tokens
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 158T tokens
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 166T tokens
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 166T tokens
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 170T tokens
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170T tokens
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 174T tokens
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 174T tokens
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 186T tokens
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 186T tokens
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$360
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180T tokens
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180T tokens
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$936
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 182T tokens
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 182T tokens
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$756
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 184T tokens
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 184T tokens
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 188T tokens
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 188T tokens
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenRouter - AI Model Rankings

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 156T tokens
  • Above 160T tokens
  • Above 162T tokens

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25". Above 156T tokens leads at 99%. Next is Above 160T tokens at 97%. $17K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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