The Prediction Markets

O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Winner

Closes
Nov 15, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$72K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Justin Allgaier 42.1%

Next is Corey Day at 18%. The venues differ most on Justin Allgaier (Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 23%), a 26-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Justin Allgaier
42.1%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 23%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Allgaier
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Allgaier
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Corey Day
18%
Polymarket 29.9%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Corey Day
Last price
29.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
55.2¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$181 (1.81x)
Volume
$907
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Corey Day
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jesse Love
15.7%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Love
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17.3¢
Sell Yes
15.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$578 (5.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Love
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Carson Kvapil
10.1%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 11%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carson Kvapil
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carson Kvapil
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sam Mayer
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Mayer
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Hill
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Hill
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sheldon Creed
4.3%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sheldon Creed
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sheldon Creed
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$842
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Brent Crews
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brent Crews
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon Jones
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Jones
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$919
Trade this on Kalshi
Rajah Caruth
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rajah Caruth
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 28 more outcomes
William Sawalich
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Sawalich
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthony Alfredo
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Alfredo
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Sieg
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Sieg
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Sammy Smith
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sammy Smith
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$756
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Gray
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Gray
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nick Sanchez
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nick Sanchez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Parker Retzlaff
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parker Retzlaff
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Patterson
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Patterson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers wins
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers wins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Perez
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Perez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Perez
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blaine Perkins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brennan Poole
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brennan Poole
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dawson Cram
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dawson Cram
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dean Thompson
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean Thompson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Garrett Smithley
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garrett Smithley
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Harrison Burton
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harrison Burton
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeb Burton
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeb Burton
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Clements
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Clements
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joey Gase
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joey Gase
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Bilicki
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Bilicki
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Williams
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Williams
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kyle Sieg
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyle Sieg
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lavar Scott
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lavar Scott
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mason Maggio
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mason Maggio
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Patrick Emerling
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Emerling
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Patrick Staropoli
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Staropoli
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Preston Pardus
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Preston Pardus
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Ellis
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Ellis
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: nascar.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Justin Allgaier
  • Corey Day
  • Jesse Love

Live prices for Justin Allgaier

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Winner". Justin Allgaier leads at 42.1%. Next is Corey Day at 18%. $72K has traded across 38 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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