The Prediction Markets

Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 d ago
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What the markets expect

Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5 57%

Next is Luca Nardi at 56%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 25 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luca Nardi
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luca Nardi
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$378
Trade this on Kalshi
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Polymarket
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Set 1 Winner
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 22.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 25 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Ritschard
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Ritschard
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 23.5
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Luca Nardi (-1.5) vs Alexander Ritschard (+1.5)
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 25 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Alexander Ritschard (-1.5) vs Luca Nardi (+1.5)
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5
  • Luca Nardi
  • Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard". Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard Match O/U 21.5 leads at 57%. Next is Luca Nardi at 56%. $4K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Nardi and Alexander Ritschard in the Orleans, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 7:20AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Nardi' if Luca Nardi advances against Alexander Ritschard. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Ritschard' if Alexander Ritschard advances against Luca Nardi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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