The Prediction Markets

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana

Starts in 5 h 46 minKickoff
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Cirstea 77.9%

Next is Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 71.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cirstea
77.9%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 51s agoKalshi 78%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$883
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sorana Cirstea
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 77¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 78¢.

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 Winner
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set 2 Winner
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
65%
Polymarket 65%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Game Spread +/-4.5
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 51s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 51s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 51s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 51s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Completed Match
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Match O/U 21.5
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Match O/U 22.5
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Match O/U 23.5
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Stoiana
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Stoiana
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: wtatennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: WTA
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cirstea
  • Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5

Live prices for Cirstea

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana". Cirstea leads at 77.9%. Next is Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 71.5%. $8K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Sorana Cirstea and Mary Stoiana in the Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sorana Cirstea' if Sorana Cirstea advances against Mary Stoiana. This market will resolve to 'Mary Stoiana' if Mary Stoiana advances against Sorana Cirstea. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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