The Prediction Markets

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu

Starts in 5 h 17 minKickoff
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5 70.5%

Next is Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5 at 69.5%. The venues differ most on Sonmez (Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 46%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Claire Liu
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Claire Liu
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Completed Match
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Match O/U 21.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Set 1 Winner
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Set 2 Winner
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Sonmez
46.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 46%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$874
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zeynep Sonmez
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 47¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 47¢.

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Match O/U 22.5
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Match O/U 23.5
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: wtatennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: WTA
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 20, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
  • Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5
  • Claire Liu

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu". Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5 leads at 70.5%. Next is Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu Game Spread +/-1.5 at 69.5%. $6K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 13, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Zeynep Sonmez and Claire Liu in the Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, originally scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zeynep Sonmez' if Zeynep Sonmez advances against Claire Liu. This market will resolve to 'Claire Liu' if Claire Liu advances against Zeynep Sonmez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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