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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Marc Marquez 52%
Next is Ai Ogura at 33%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Marc Marquez52%52%51¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 2 h ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Marc Marquez52%Kalshi 52%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Marc Marquez
52%
52%
51¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Marc Marquez
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marc Marquez
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $1K
Ai Ogura33%33%3¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 2 h ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Ai Ogura33%Kalshi 33%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Ai Ogura
33%
33%
3¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Ai Ogura
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ai Ogura
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $55
Marco Bezzecchi29%29%9¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 2 h ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Marco Bezzecchi29%Kalshi 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Marco Bezzecchi
29%
29%
9¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Marco Bezzecchi
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Bezzecchi
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $385
Enea Bastianini18%18%— bid, 36¢ askpolled, 2 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Enea Bastianini18%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Enea Bastianini
18%
18%
— bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Enea Bastianini
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Enea Bastianini
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Fabio Di Giannantonio18%18%— bid, 36¢ askpolled, 2 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Fabio Di Giannantonio18%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Fabio Di Giannantonio
18%
18%
— bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Fabio Di Giannantonio
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabio Di Giannantonio
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Francesco Bagnaia18%18%— bid, 36¢ askpolled, 2 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Francesco Bagnaia18%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Francesco Bagnaia
18%
18%
— bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Francesco Bagnaia
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Francesco Bagnaia
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Franco Morbidelli18%18%— bid, 36¢ askpolled, 2 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Franco Morbidelli18%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Franco Morbidelli
18%
18%
— bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Franco Morbidelli
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Franco Morbidelli
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Iker Lecuona18%18%— bid, 36¢ askpolled, 2 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Iker Lecuona18%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Iker Lecuona
18%
18%
— bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Iker Lecuona
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Iker Lecuona
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Johann Zarco18%18%— bid, 36¢ askpolled, 2 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Johann Zarco18%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Johann Zarco
18%
18%
— bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Johann Zarco
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Johann Zarco
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Luca Marini18%18%— bid, 36¢ askpolled, 2 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Luca Marini18%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Luca Marini
18%
18%
— bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Luca Marini
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Luca Marini
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Maverick Vinales18%18%— bid, 36¢ askpolled, 2 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Maverick Vinales18%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Maverick Vinales
18%
18%
— bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Maverick Vinales
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maverick Vinales
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Brad Binder17.5%17.5%— bid, 35¢ askpolled, 2 h ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Brad Binder17.5%Kalshi 17.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Brad Binder
17.5%
17.5%
— bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Brad Binder
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brad Binder
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
Diogo Moreira17.5%17.5%— bid, 35¢ askpolled, 2 h ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Diogo Moreira17.5%Kalshi 17.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Diogo Moreira
17.5%
17.5%
— bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Diogo Moreira
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Diogo Moreira
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
Alex Rins5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Alex Rins5%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Rins
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Rins
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex Rins
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $9
Augusto Fernandez5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Augusto Fernandez5%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Augusto Fernandez
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Augusto Fernandez
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Augusto Fernandez
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $9
Pedro Acosta5%5%5¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 2 h ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Pedro Acosta5%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Pedro Acosta
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Pedro Acosta
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pedro Acosta
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $1K
Fabio Quartararo2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Fabio Quartararo2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Fabio Quartararo
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Fabio Quartararo
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabio Quartararo
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Jack Miller2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Jack Miller2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jack Miller
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jack Miller
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jack Miller
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Joan Mir2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Joan Mir2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Joan Mir
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Joan Mir
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joan Mir
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Marquez1%1%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Alex Marquez1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Marquez
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex Marquez
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex Marquez
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $980
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MotoGP
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Marc Marquez
- Ai Ogura
- Marco Bezzecchi
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Qatar Airways Grand Prix of Qatar Winner". Marc Marquez leads at 52%. Next is Ai Ogura at 33%. $4K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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