The Prediction Markets

Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$49K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Carlos Alcaraz 83%

Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 74.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Carlos Alcaraz
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos Alcaraz
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
62%
Polymarket 62%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
2¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 21.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 22.5
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 23.5
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 Winner
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 Winner
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelsen
17.7%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 18%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Michelsen
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 11, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Carlos Alcaraz
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Carlos Alcaraz for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz". Carlos Alcaraz leads at 83%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 74.5%. $49K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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