The Prediction Markets

Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz

Starts in 11 hKickoff
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5 69.5%

Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5 at 59.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fils
54.7%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 55%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arthur Fils
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 55¢.

Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Game Spread +/-0.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Fritz
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Fritz
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
  • Fils

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz". Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5 leads at 69.5%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5 at 59.5%. $18K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Taylor Fritz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Taylor Fritz. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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