The Prediction Markets

Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech

Starts in 12 hKickoff
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5 92.5%

Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5 at 74.5%. The venues differ most on Shelton (Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 74%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Shelton
73.6%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 74%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Shelton
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 73¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 73¢.

Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 21.5
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 1 Winner
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$986
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 2 Winner
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 4 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 23.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Ben Shelton (-1.5) vs Arthur Rinderknech (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Arthur Rinderknech
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arthur Rinderknech
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$876
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Arthur Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Ben Shelton (+1.5)
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5
  • Shelton

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech". Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5 leads at 92.5%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech Match O/U 22.5 at 74.5%. $2K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Arthur Rinderknech in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Arthur Rinderknech. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Ben Shelton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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