The Prediction Markets

Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche

Starts in 1 h 46 minKickoff
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 76%

Next is Musetti at 72.9%. The venues differ most on Musetti (Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 74%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Musetti
72.9%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 74%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lorenzo Musetti
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 73¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 73¢.

Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Set 1 Winner
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Set 2 Winner
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Match O/U 21.5
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 40s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 40s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 40s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 40s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Completed Match
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Match O/U 22.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Match O/U 23.5
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Luca Van Assche
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luca Van Assche
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5
  • Musetti
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche". Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche Game Spread +/-3.5 leads at 76%. Next is Musetti at 72.9%. $20K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Luca Van Assche in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Luca Van Assche. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Lorenzo Musetti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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