The Prediction Markets

Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata

Starts in 15 hKickoff
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5 79.5%

Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 73.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Match O/U 21.5
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Luca Van Assche
60.8%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 61%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luca Van Assche
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 60¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 61¢.

Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 Winner
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Match O/U 22.5
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Match O/U 23.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rinky Hijikata
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rinky Hijikata
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 13, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 20, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata". Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 79.5%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 73.5%. $5K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 13, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Rinky Hijikata in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Rinky Hijikata. This market will resolve to 'Rinky Hijikata' if Rinky Hijikata advances against Luca Van Assche. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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