The Prediction Markets

Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse

Starts in 12 hKickoff
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Borges 59.8%

Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5 at 55%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Borges
59.8%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 60%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nuno Borges
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 59¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 60¢.

Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 Winner
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 22.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 42s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Ignacio Buse (-1.5) vs Nuno Borges (+1.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 23.5
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ignacio Buse
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ignacio Buse
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Nuno Borges (-1.5) vs Ignacio Buse (+1.5)
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Game Spread +/-0.5
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Borges
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5

Live prices for Borges

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse". Borges leads at 59.8%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5 at 55%. $10K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Nuno Borges and Ignacio Buse in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nuno Borges' if Nuno Borges advances against Ignacio Buse. This market will resolve to 'Ignacio Buse' if Ignacio Buse advances against Nuno Borges. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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