The Prediction Markets

Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys

Starts in 6 hKickoff
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5 75%

Next is Paul at 74.6%. The venues differ most on Paul (Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 75%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
75%
Polymarket 75%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul
74.6%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 23s agoKalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tommy Paul
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 73¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 74¢.

Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Set 1 Winner
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Match O/U 21.5
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Match O/U 22.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Set 2 Winner
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Match O/U 23.5
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Quentin Halys
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quentin Halys
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5
  • Paul
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys". Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5 leads at 75%. Next is Paul at 74.6%. $9K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Quentin Halys in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Quentin Halys. This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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