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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Draw (South Africa vs. Kenya) 100%
Next is South Africa at 19%. The venues differ most on South Africa (Polymarket 0.1%, Kalshi 76%), a 76-point gap.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Draw (South Africa vs. Kenya)100%100%99.9¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNot listedNo askDraw (South Africa vs. Kenya)100%Polymarket 100%polled, 1 min ago
Draw (South Africa vs. Kenya)
100%
100%
99.9¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
No ask
Draw (South Africa vs. Kenya)
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Draw (South Africa vs. Kenya)
- Last price
- 100%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99.9¢
- Volume
- $8K
South AfricaArb19%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago76%76¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)South AfricaArb19%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
South AfricaArb
19%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
76%
76¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
South AfricaArb
19%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- South Africa
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $86K
Kalshi
- Contract
- South Africa
- Last price
- 76%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $1K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 76¢ nets 7590 bps before fees.
Draw/Tie15.5%Not listed15.5%9¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 1 min ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Draw/Tie15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Draw/Tie
15.5%
Not listed
15.5%
9¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Draw/Tie
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/Tie
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Bangladesh15%Not listed15%6¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Bangladesh15%Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Bangladesh
15%
Not listed
15%
6¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Bangladesh
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bangladesh
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $43
Kenya0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Kenya0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kenya
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kenya
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kenya
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $19K
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy South Africa on Polymarket at 0.1¢, sell on Kalshi at 76¢ (7590 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Nov 13, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 22, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: cafonline.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Cricbuzz, ESPNcricinfo
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Nov 13, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 22, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Draw (South Africa vs. Kenya)
- South Africa
- Draw/Tie
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Draw (South Africa vs. Kenya) for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "South Africa vs Bangladesh". Draw (South Africa vs. Kenya) leads at 100%. Next is South Africa at 19%. $115K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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