The Prediction Markets

Sperle vs Echargui

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Moez Echargui 85%

Next is Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5 at 61%. The venues differ most on Sperle (Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 17%), a 3.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Moez Echargui
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moez Echargui
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Set 1 Winner
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
22¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Moez Echargui (-1.5) vs John Sperle (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
54¢
Volume
$11
Trade this on Polymarket
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Match O/U 21.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
42¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: John Sperle (-1.5) vs Moez Echargui (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
10¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Match O/U 22.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Match O/U 23.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
30¢
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
SperleArb
15.9%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Sperle
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 14¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Sperle on Polymarket at 14¢, sell on Kalshi at 17¢ (300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 22, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Moez Echargui
  • Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5
  • Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Moez Echargui for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Sperle vs Echargui". Moez Echargui leads at 85%. Next is Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui Total Sets: O/U 2.5 at 61%. $6K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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