The Prediction Markets

Stephens vs Perry

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
56 min ago
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What the markets expect

Stephens 73.4%

Next is Luciana Perry at 21%. The venues differ most on Stephens (Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 79%), a 7.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 56 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Stephens
73.4%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 56 min agoKalshi 79%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
W35 Orlando, FL: Sloane Stephens vs Luciana Perry
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 56 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sloane Stephens
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 56 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 56 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 72¢ and selling on Kalshi at 78¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

Luciana Perry
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luciana Perry
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 56 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Set Handicap: Luciana Perry (-1.5) vs Sloane Stephens (+1.5)
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Luciana Perry (-1.5) vs Sloane Stephens (+1.5)
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 56 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Set Handicap: Sloane Stephens (-1.5) vs Luciana Perry (+1.5)
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 56 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Sloane Stephens (-1.5) vs Luciana Perry (+1.5)
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 56 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 56 min old: Stephens asks 72¢ on Polymarket and bids 78¢ on Kalshi (600 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 12, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: itftennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Stephens
  • Luciana Perry
  • Set Handicap: Luciana Perry (-1.5) vs Sloane Stephens (+1.5)

Live prices for Stephens

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Stephens vs Perry". Stephens leads at 73.4%. Next is Luciana Perry at 21%. $5K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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