The Prediction Markets

Test Match: South Africa vs Bangladesh

Starts in 2 h 37 minKickoff
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

South Africa 75.1%

Next is Bangladesh at 9%. The venues differ most on Bangladesh (Polymarket 7.2%, Kalshi 11%), a 3.8-point gap.

South Africa 75.1%Bangladesh 9%Draw/Tie 8.1%Draw 7.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 18 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
South Africa
75.1%
Polymarket 84.5%(77.5% fair)polled, 18 min agoKalshi 83%(74.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Africa
Last price
84.5%
Fair, margin removed
77.5%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
South Africa
Last price
83%
Fair, margin removed
74.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 18 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 83¢ and selling on Polymarket at 84¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Bangladesh
9%
Polymarket 7.2%(6.6% fair)polled, 18 min agoKalshi 11%(9.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bangladesh
Last price
7.2%
Fair, margin removed
6.6%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bangladesh
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 18 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.3¢.

Draw/Tie
8.1%
Kalshi 9%(8.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw/Tie
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw
7.8%
Polymarket 8.5%(7.8% fair)polled, 18 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw
Last price
8.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled 18 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 18 min old: South Africa asks 83¢ on Kalshi and bids 84¢ on Polymarket (100 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: espncricinfo.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Cricbuzz, ESPNcricinfo
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Nov 22, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 22, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • South Africa
  • Bangladesh
  • Draw/Tie

Live prices for South Africa

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Test Match: South Africa vs Bangladesh". South Africa leads at 75.1%. Next is Bangladesh at 9%. $17K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

In the upcoming Test Match cricket match between South Africa and Bangladesh, originally scheduled for Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve to draw. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the match is canceled, does not start by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, the market will resolve to draw. If the match otherwise is completed without a winner, the market will resolve to draw. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Test Match: South Africa vs Bangladesh Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets