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What the markets expect
Magnus Carlsen 39.3%
Next is Fabiano Caruana at 10%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Magnus Carlsen39.3%59%39.3% fair58¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 1 h ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)Magnus Carlsen39.3%Kalshi 59%(39.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Magnus Carlsen
39.3%
59%
39.3% fair
58¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Magnus Carlsen
39.3%
Kalshi 59%(39.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Magnus Carlsen
- Last price
- 59%
- Fair, margin removed
- 39.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $1K
Fabiano Caruana10%15%10% fair7¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 h ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Fabiano Caruana10%Kalshi 15%(10% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Fabiano Caruana
10%
15%
10% fair
7¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Fabiano Caruana
10%
Kalshi 15%(10% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabiano Caruana
- Last price
- 15%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $149
Wesley So6.6%10%6.7% fair4¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 h ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Wesley So6.6%Kalshi 10%(6.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Wesley So
6.6%
10%
6.7% fair
4¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Wesley So
6.6%
Kalshi 10%(6.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wesley So
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $695
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu6%9%6% fair4¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 h ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu6%Kalshi 9%(6% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
6%
9%
6% fair
4¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
6%
Kalshi 9%(6% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $215
Alireza Firouzja3%4.5%3% fair2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 h ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Alireza Firouzja3%Kalshi 4.5%(3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alireza Firouzja
3%
4.5%
3% fair
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alireza Firouzja
3%
Kalshi 4.5%(3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alireza Firouzja
- Last price
- 4.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov2.6%4%2.7% fair2¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Nodirbek Abdusattorov2.6%Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
2.6%
4%
2.7% fair
2¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
2.6%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Arjun Erigaisi2.3%3.5%2.3% fair2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Arjun Erigaisi2.3%Kalshi 3.5%(2.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Arjun Erigaisi
2.3%
3.5%
2.3% fair
2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Arjun Erigaisi
2.3%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arjun Erigaisi
- Last price
- 3.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Ian Nepomniachtchi2%3%2% fair1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Ian Nepomniachtchi2%Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ian Nepomniachtchi
2%
3%
2% fair
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ian Nepomniachtchi
2%
Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ian Nepomniachtchi
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda2%3%2% fair1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Jan-Krzysztof Duda2%Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
2%
3%
2% fair
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
2%
Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jan-Krzysztof Duda
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Levon Aronian2%3%2% fair1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Levon Aronian2%Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Levon Aronian
2%
3%
2% fair
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Levon Aronian
2%
Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Levon Aronian
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave2%3%2% fair1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Maxime Vachier-Lagrave2%Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
2%
3%
2% fair
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
2%
Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Richard Rapport2%3%2% fair1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Richard Rapport2%Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Richard Rapport
2%
3%
2% fair
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Richard Rapport
2%
Kalshi 3%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Richard Rapport
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Abhimanyu Mishra1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Abhimanyu Mishra1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Abhimanyu Mishra
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Abhimanyu Mishra
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abhimanyu Mishra
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Andrew Hong1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Andrew Hong1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Andrew Hong
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Andrew Hong
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrew Hong
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Anish Giri1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Anish Giri1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Anish Giri
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Anish Giri
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anish Giri
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Bibisara Assaubayeva1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Bibisara Assaubayeva1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Bibisara Assaubayeva
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Bibisara Assaubayeva
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bibisara Assaubayeva
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Haik M. Martirosyan1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Haik M. Martirosyan1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Haik M. Martirosyan
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Haik M. Martirosyan
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Haik M. Martirosyan
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Hans Moke Niemann1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Hans Moke Niemann1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Hans Moke Niemann
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Hans Moke Niemann
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hans Moke Niemann
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Jorden van Foreest1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Jorden van Foreest1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jorden van Foreest
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jorden van Foreest
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jorden van Foreest
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Liem Le1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Liem Le1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Liem Le
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Liem Le
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liem Le
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Shakhriyar Mamedyarov1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Vaishali Rameshbabu1.7%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Vaishali Rameshbabu1.7%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Vaishali Rameshbabu
1.7%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Vaishali Rameshbabu
1.7%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vaishali Rameshbabu
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Vincent Keymer1.6%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Vincent Keymer1.6%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Vincent Keymer
1.6%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Vincent Keymer
1.6%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vincent Keymer
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Vladislav Artemiev1.6%2.5%1.7% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Vladislav Artemiev1.6%Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Vladislav Artemiev
1.6%
2.5%
1.7% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Vladislav Artemiev
1.6%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vladislav Artemiev
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Chess.com, FIDE, Total Chess
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Magnus Carlsen
- Fabiano Caruana
- Wesley So
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot Winner". Magnus Carlsen leads at 39.3%. Next is Fabiano Caruana at 10%. $2K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 27, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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