The Prediction Markets

UEFA Nations League: Group A3 Winner

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 17 days
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Spain 79%

Next is Czechia at 29%. The venues differ most on England (Polymarket 18%, Kalshi 32%), a 14-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 19 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Spain
79%
Polymarket 80%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 76%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spain
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Spain
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$926
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 74¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

Czechia
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Czechia
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
England
21.5%
Polymarket 18%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 32%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
England
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
England
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Croatia
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Croatia
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the tournament is cancelled or postponed after Dec 1, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or no winner is declared by then; Kalshi has no stated fallback.
  • Polymarket explicitly uses the official UEFA tiebreak procedure for ties; Kalshi is silent, though "finish first" would normally follow official standings.
  • Polymarket names UEFA as primary source and allows credible reporting consensus; Kalshi names no source.
  • Polymarket lists only England and Spain in its outcomes field, while its rules text covers Croatia and Czechia too; Kalshi lists all four. Unlisted outcomes are not linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 2, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, UEFA
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the tournament is cancelled or postponed after Dec 1, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or no winner is declared by then; Kalshi has no stated fallback.
  • Polymarket explicitly uses the official UEFA tiebreak procedure for ties; Kalshi is silent, though "finish first" would normally follow official standings.
  • Polymarket names UEFA as primary source and allows credible reporting consensus; Kalshi names no source.
  • Polymarket lists only England and Spain in its outcomes field, while its rules text covers Croatia and Czechia too; Kalshi lists all four. Unlisted outcomes are not linked.
  • Trading closes Dec 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 2, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Spain
  • Czechia
  • England

Live prices for Spain

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UEFA Nations League: Group A3 Winner". Spain leads at 79%. Next is Czechia at 29%. $17K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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