The Prediction Markets

UFC: Who Will Sean O'Malley Fight Next?

Ends in about 417 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Petr Yan 80%

Next is Payton Talbott at 31.1%. The venues differ most on Payton Talbott (Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 37%), a 24-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Petr Yan
80%
Polymarket 77%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Petr Yan
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$519
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Petr Yan
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 76¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

Payton Talbott
31.1%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Payton Talbott
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Payton Talbott
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Merab DvalishviliArb
5.9%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merab Dvalishvili
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Merab Dvalishvili
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$809
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Umar Nurmagomedov
5.4%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Umar Nurmagomedov
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Umar Nurmagomedov
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 95¢.

Cory Sandhagen
5.2%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cory Sandhagen
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cory Sandhagen
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 95¢.

Song Yadong
4.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Song Yadong
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Song Yadong
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Mario Bautista
3.7%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mario Bautista
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mario Bautista
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Aiemann Zahabi
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aiemann Zahabi
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
David Martinez
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Martinez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Deiveson Figueiredo
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deiveson Figueiredo
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Marcus McGhee
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marcus McGhee
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Marlon Vera
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marlon Vera
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Montel Jackson
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Montel Jackson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Raul Rosas Jr.
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raul Rosas Jr.
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Rob Font
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rob Font
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
Adrian Yanez
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adrian Yanez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Bryce Mitchell
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bryce Mitchell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Charles Jourdain
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Jourdain
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Kyler Phillips
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyler Phillips
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Merab Dvalishvili on Polymarket at 5¢, sell on Kalshi at 7¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Petr Yan
  • Payton Talbott
  • Merab Dvalishvili

Live prices for Petr Yan

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC: Who Will Sean O'Malley Fight Next?". Petr Yan leads at 80%. Next is Payton Talbott at 31.1%. $7K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Sean O'Malley is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that UFC officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Sean O'Malley is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by October 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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