The Prediction Markets

W15 Hilton Head Island, SC: Jantje Tilbuerger vs Jensen Diianni

Starts in 1 h 7 minKickoff
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Tilbuerger 80.4%

Next is Set Handicap: Jantje Tilbuerger (-1.5) vs Jensen Diianni (+1.5) at 49.5%. The venues differ most on Tilbuerger (Polymarket 80%, Kalshi 81%), a 1.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tilbuerger
80.4%
Polymarket 80%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 81%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
W15 Hilton Head Island, SC: Jantje Tilbuerger vs Jensen Diianni
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jantje Tilbuerger
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$681
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 79¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

Set Handicap: Jantje Tilbuerger (-1.5) vs Jensen Diianni (+1.5)
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Jantje Tilbuerger (-1.5) vs Jensen Diianni (+1.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Set Handicap: Jensen Diianni (-1.5) vs Jantje Tilbuerger (+1.5)
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Jensen Diianni (-1.5) vs Jantje Tilbuerger (+1.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Jensen Diianni
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jensen Diianni
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: itftennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tilbuerger
  • Set Handicap: Jantje Tilbuerger (-1.5) vs Jensen Diianni (+1.5)
  • Set Handicap: Jensen Diianni (-1.5) vs Jantje Tilbuerger (+1.5)

Live prices for Tilbuerger

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "W15 Hilton Head Island, SC: Jantje Tilbuerger vs Jensen Diianni". Tilbuerger leads at 80.4%. Next is Set Handicap: Jantje Tilbuerger (-1.5) vs Jensen Diianni (+1.5) at 49.5%. $3K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Jantje Tilbuerger and Jensen Diianni in the W15 Hilton Head Island, SC, Main Draw, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jantje Tilbuerger' if Jantje Tilbuerger advances against Jensen Diianni. This market will resolve to 'Jensen Diianni' if Jensen Diianni advances against Jantje Tilbuerger. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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W15 Hilton Head Island, SC: Jantje Tilbuerger vs Jensen Diianni Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets