The Prediction Markets

W15 Szabolcsveresmart: Sofia Barhacova vs Greta Fenyves

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Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Barhacova 98.4%

Next is Set Handicap: Sofia Barhacova (-1.5) vs Greta Fenyves (+1.5) at 50%. The venues differ most on Barhacova (Polymarket 96.8%, Kalshi 99%), a 2.2-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
BarhacovaArb
98.4%
Polymarket 96.8%polled, 59s agoKalshi 99%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 97.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
W15 Szabolcsveresmart: Sofia Barhacova vs Greta Fenyves
Last price
96.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.5¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sofia Barhacova
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 97.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 98¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Set Handicap: Sofia Barhacova (-1.5) vs Greta Fenyves (+1.5)
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Sofia Barhacova (-1.5) vs Greta Fenyves (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Greta Fenyves
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greta Fenyves
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Set Handicap: Greta Fenyves (-1.5) vs Sofia Barhacova (+1.5)
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Greta Fenyves (-1.5) vs Sofia Barhacova (+1.5)
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Barhacova on Polymarket at 97.5¢, sell on Kalshi at 98¢ (50 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 12, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: itftennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Barhacova
  • Set Handicap: Sofia Barhacova (-1.5) vs Greta Fenyves (+1.5)
  • Greta Fenyves

Live prices for Barhacova

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

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Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "W15 Szabolcsveresmart: Sofia Barhacova vs Greta Fenyves". Barhacova leads at 98.4%. Next is Set Handicap: Sofia Barhacova (-1.5) vs Greta Fenyves (+1.5) at 50%. $25K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Sofia Barhacova and Greta Fenyves in the W15 Szabolcsveresmart, Main Draw, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sofia Barhacova' if Sofia Barhacova advances against Greta Fenyves. This market will resolve to 'Greta Fenyves' if Greta Fenyves advances against Sofia Barhacova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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