The Prediction Markets

What day will the Backpack token launch be?

Closed
Apr 1, 2026
Traded
$833K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 214 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
March 23
99.6%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5147 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
March 23
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$620K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 24
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5147 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 24
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 25
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5147 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 25
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$56K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 26
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5147 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 26
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 27
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5147 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 27
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 28
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5147 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 28
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 29
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5147 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 29
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 30
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5147 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 30
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5147 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
No token launch by March 31
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5147 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
No token launch by March 31
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • March 23
  • March 24
  • March 25

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What day will the Backpack token launch be?". March 23 last traded at 99.6%. Next is March 24 at 0.1%. $833K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first date (in ET) on which Backpack launches its governance token. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Backpack (https://x.com/Backpack/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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