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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
80,000 98.5%
Next is 82,500 at 77.8%. The venues differ most on 87,500 (Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 39%), a 3.5-point gap.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
2 of 34 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
80,00098.5%98.5%97¢ bid, 99.9¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed99.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100 (1.00x)80,00098.5%Polymarket 98.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
80,000
98.5%
98.5%
97¢ bid, 99.9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
99.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
80,000
98.5%
Polymarket 98.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 80,000
- Last price
- 98.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 97¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
82,500Kalshi: “Above $82,500.00”77.8%77.5%77¢ bid, 78¢ asklive, 3 h ago78%77¢ bid, 78¢ asklive, 3 h ago78¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $128 (1.28x)82,50077.8%Polymarket 77.5%live, 3 h agoKalshi 78%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
82,500
Kalshi: “Above $82,500.00”
77.8%
77.5%
77¢ bid, 78¢ ask
live, 3 h ago
78%
77¢ bid, 78¢ ask
live, 3 h ago
78¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
82,500
77.8%
Polymarket 77.5%live, 3 h agoKalshi 78%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 82,500
- Price
- 77.5%
- As of
- Live feed, 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $46K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $82,500.00
- Price
- 78%
- As of
- Live feed, 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $56K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
77,50075%75%73¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed77¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $130 (1.30x)77,50075%Polymarket 75%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
77,500
75%
75%
73¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
77¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
77,500
75%
Polymarket 75%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 77,500
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $11
85,000Kalshi: “Above $85,000.00”56%55.5%55¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 3 h ago57%56¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 3 h ago56¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $179 (1.79x)85,00056%Polymarket 55.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 57%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
85,000
Kalshi: “Above $85,000.00”
56%
55.5%
55¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
57%
56¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
56¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
85,000
56%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 57%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 85,000
- Last price
- 55.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $42K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $85,000.00
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $23K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
75,000Kalshi: “Below $75,000.00”48.1%47.5%47¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 3 h ago50%49¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 3 h ago48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)75,00048.1%Polymarket 47.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 50%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
75,000
Kalshi: “Below $75,000.00”
48.1%
47.5%
47¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
50%
49¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
75,000
48.1%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 50%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 75,000
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $234K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $75,000.00
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $38K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
87,500Kalshi: “Above $87,500.00”37%35.5%35¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 3 h ago39%38¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 3 h ago36¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $278 (2.78x)87,50037%Polymarket 35.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 39%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
87,500
Kalshi: “Above $87,500.00”
37%
35.5%
35¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
39%
38¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
36¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
87,500
37%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 39%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 87,500
- Last price
- 35.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $37K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $87,500.00
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $27K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
72,500Kalshi: “Below $72,500.00”32.1%31.5%31¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 3 h ago34%33¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 3 h ago32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)72,50032.1%Polymarket 31.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 34%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
72,500
Kalshi: “Below $72,500.00”
32.1%
31.5%
31¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
34%
33¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
72,500
32.1%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 34%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 72,500
- Last price
- 31.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $121K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $72,500.00
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $16K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
90,000Kalshi: “Above $90,000.00”23.8%23.5%23¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 3 h ago24%24¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 3 h ago24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)90,00023.8%Polymarket 23.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 24%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
90,000
Kalshi: “Above $90,000.00”
23.8%
23.5%
23¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
24%
24¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
90,000
23.8%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 24%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 90,000
- Last price
- 23.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $89K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $90,000.00
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $171K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
70,000Kalshi: “Below $70,000.00”21.1%20.5%20¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 3 h ago23%21¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 3 h ago21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)70,00021.1%Polymarket 20.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 23%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
70,000
Kalshi: “Below $70,000.00”
21.1%
20.5%
20¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
23%
21¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
70,000
21.1%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 23%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 70,000
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $87K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $70,000.00
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $13K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
92,500Kalshi: “Above $92,500.00”16.4%14.5%14¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 3 h ago17%15¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 3 h ago15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)92,50016.4%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 17%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
92,500
Kalshi: “Above $92,500.00”
16.4%
14.5%
14¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
17%
15¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
92,500
16.4%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 17%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 92,500
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $48K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $92,500.00
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $142K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
67,500Kalshi: “Below $67,500.00”13.4%13.5%13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 3 h ago13%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 3 h ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)67,50013.4%Polymarket 13.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
67,500
Kalshi: “Below $67,500.00”
13.4%
13.5%
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
13%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
67,500
13.4%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 67,500
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $99K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $67,500.00
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $23K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
95,000Kalshi: “Above $95,000.00”10.6%9.2%9.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago12%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 3 h ago9.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)95,00010.6%Polymarket 9.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
95,000
Kalshi: “Above $95,000.00”
10.6%
9.2%
9.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
12%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
9.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
95,000
10.6%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 95,000
- Last price
- 9.2%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,087 (10.9x)
- Volume
- $57K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $95,000.00
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $62K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
65,000Kalshi: “Below $65,000.00”9.3%9.5%9¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 3 h ago9%8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 3 h ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)65,0009.3%Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
65,000
Kalshi: “Below $65,000.00”
9.3%
9.5%
9¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
9%
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
65,000
9.3%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 65,000
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $124K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $65,000.00
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $72K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
62,500Kalshi: “Below $62,500.00”6.6%6.5%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 3 h ago7%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 3 h ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)62,5006.6%Polymarket 6.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
62,500
Kalshi: “Below $62,500.00”
6.6%
6.5%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
7%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
62,500
6.6%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 62,500
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $135K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $62,500.00
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $32K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
97,500Kalshi: “Above $97,500.00”6.2%5.5%5.3¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 3 h ago7%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 3 h ago5.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)97,5006.2%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
97,500
Kalshi: “Above $97,500.00”
6.2%
5.5%
5.3¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
7%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
5.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
97,500
6.2%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 97,500
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $54K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $97,500.00
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $50K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
60,000Kalshi: “Below $60,000.00”4.4%4.5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3 h ago4%2¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)60,0004.4%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
60,000
Kalshi: “Below $60,000.00”
4.4%
4.5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
4%
2¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
60,000
4.4%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 60,000
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $170K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $60,000.00
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
57,500Kalshi: “Below $57,500.00”3.6%3.2%3.1¢ bid, 3.2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago5%2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3 h ago3.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)57,5003.6%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
57,500
Kalshi: “Below $57,500.00”
3.6%
3.2%
3.1¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
5%
2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
3.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
57,500
3.6%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 57,500
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,125 (31.3x)
- Volume
- $288K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below $57,500.00
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Resolution sources differ
Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
100,0003.3%3.3%3.2¢ bid, 3.3¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed3.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)100,0003.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
100,000
3.3%
3.3%
3.2¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
3.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
100,000
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 100,000
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,030 (30.3x)
- Volume
- $111K
55,0002.3%2.3%2.1¢ bid, 2.4¢ askpolled, 3 h agoNot listed2.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)55,0002.3%Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
55,000
2.3%
2.3%
2.1¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
Not listed
2.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
55,000
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 55,000
- Last price
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,167 (41.7x)
- Volume
- $101K
Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads
Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules
Where they differ
- Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
- Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
- Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
- Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
- Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
- Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 80,000
- 82,500
- 77,500
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 80,000 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What price will Bitcoin hit in November?". 80,000 leads at 98.5%. Next is 82,500 at 77.8%. $3.6M has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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