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What the markets expect
82,000 85.3%
Next is 81,000 at 46.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
82,00085.3%85.3%84.6¢ bid, 85.9¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed85.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $116 (1.16x)82,00085.3%Polymarket 85.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 85.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
82,000
85.3%
85.3%
84.6¢ bid, 85.9¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
85.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
82,000
85.3%
Polymarket 85.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 85.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 82,000
- Last price
- 85.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 84.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $7K
81,00046.5%46.5%46¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed47¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $213 (2.13x)81,00046.5%Polymarket 46.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
81,000
46.5%
46.5%
46¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
47¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
81,000
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 81,000
- Last price
- 46.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $4K
83,00029.5%29.5%29¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)83,00029.5%Polymarket 29.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
83,000
29.5%
29.5%
29¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
83,000
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 83,000
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $3K
80,00014.5%14.5%14¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)80,00014.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
80,000
14.5%
14.5%
14¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
80,000
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 80,000
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $10K
80,000 to 84,999.9914.5%Not listed14.5%14.4¢ bid, 14.5¢ askpolled, 42s ago14.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $690 (6.90x)80,000 to 84,999.9914.5%Kalshi 14.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
80,000 to 84,999.99
14.5%
Not listed
14.5%
14.4¢ bid, 14.5¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
14.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $690 (6.90x)
80,000 to 84,999.99
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 80,000 to 84,999.99
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 14.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $690 (6.90x)
- Volume
- $3.1M
75,000 to 79,999.9913.6%Not listed13.6%13.5¢ bid, 13.6¢ askpolled, 42s ago13.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $735 (7.35x)75,000 to 79,999.9913.6%Kalshi 13.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
75,000 to 79,999.99
13.6%
Not listed
13.6%
13.5¢ bid, 13.6¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
13.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $735 (7.35x)
75,000 to 79,999.99
13.6%
Kalshi 13.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 75,000 to 79,999.99
- Last price
- 13.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 13.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $735 (7.35x)
- Volume
- $3.2M
85,000 to 89,999.9911.9%Not listed11.9%11.8¢ bid, 11.9¢ askpolled, 42s ago11.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $840 (8.40x)85,000 to 89,999.9911.9%Kalshi 11.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
85,000 to 89,999.99
11.9%
Not listed
11.9%
11.8¢ bid, 11.9¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
11.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $840 (8.40x)
85,000 to 89,999.99
11.9%
Kalshi 11.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 85,000 to 89,999.99
- Last price
- 11.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $840 (8.40x)
- Volume
- $2.4M
90,000 to 94,999.9910.2%Not listed10.2%10.1¢ bid, 10.2¢ askpolled, 42s ago10.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $980 (9.80x)90,000 to 94,999.9910.2%Kalshi 10.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
90,000 to 94,999.99
10.2%
Not listed
10.2%
10.1¢ bid, 10.2¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
10.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $980 (9.80x)
90,000 to 94,999.99
10.2%
Kalshi 10.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 90,000 to 94,999.99
- Last price
- 10.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $980 (9.80x)
- Volume
- $1.4M
70,000 to 74,999.999.4%Not listed9.4%9.2¢ bid, 9.4¢ askpolled, 42s ago9.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)70,000 to 74,999.999.4%Kalshi 9.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
70,000 to 74,999.99
9.4%
Not listed
9.4%
9.2¢ bid, 9.4¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
9.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
70,000 to 74,999.99
9.4%
Kalshi 9.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 70,000 to 74,999.99
- Last price
- 9.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,064 (10.6x)
- Volume
- $2.5M
84,0007.5%7.5%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)84,0007.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
84,000
7.5%
7.5%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
84,000
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 84,000
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $5K
Show 34 more outcomesHide 34 outcomes
95,000 to 99,999.996.3%Not listed6.3%6.2¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 42s ago6.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)95,000 to 99,999.996.3%Kalshi 6.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
95,000 to 99,999.99
6.3%
Not listed
6.3%
6.2¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
6.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
95,000 to 99,999.99
6.3%
Kalshi 6.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 95,000 to 99,999.99
- Last price
- 6.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $900K
65,000 to 69,999.995.1%Not listed5.1%5¢ bid, 5.2¢ askpolled, 42s ago5.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)65,000 to 69,999.995.1%Kalshi 5.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
65,000 to 69,999.99
5.1%
Not listed
5.1%
5¢ bid, 5.2¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
5.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
65,000 to 69,999.99
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 65,000 to 69,999.99
- Last price
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,923 (19.2x)
- Volume
- $2.5M
79,0004.8%4.8%4.7¢ bid, 4.8¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed4.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)79,0004.8%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
79,000
4.8%
4.8%
4.7¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
4.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
79,000
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 79,000
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $30K
100,000 to 104,999.994.7%Not listed4.7%4.6¢ bid, 4.7¢ askpolled, 42s ago4.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)100,000 to 104,999.994.7%Kalshi 4.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
100,000 to 104,999.99
4.7%
Not listed
4.7%
4.6¢ bid, 4.7¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
4.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
100,000 to 104,999.99
4.7%
Kalshi 4.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 100,000 to 104,999.99
- Last price
- 4.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,128 (21.3x)
- Volume
- $1.0M
60,000 to 64,999.993.7%Not listed3.7%3.6¢ bid, 3.7¢ askpolled, 42s ago3.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)60,000 to 64,999.993.7%Kalshi 3.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
60,000 to 64,999.99
3.7%
Not listed
3.7%
3.6¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
3.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
60,000 to 64,999.99
3.7%
Kalshi 3.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 60,000 to 64,999.99
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $2.5M
105,000 to 109,999.993.2%Not listed3.2%3.1¢ bid, 3.2¢ askpolled, 42s ago3.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)105,000 to 109,999.993.2%Kalshi 3.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
105,000 to 109,999.99
3.2%
Not listed
3.2%
3.1¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
3.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
105,000 to 109,999.99
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 105,000 to 109,999.99
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,125 (31.3x)
- Volume
- $707K
85,0002.4%2.4%2.2¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)85,0002.4%Polymarket 2.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
85,000
2.4%
2.4%
2.2¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
85,000
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 85,000
- Last price
- 2.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $12K
110,000 to 114,999.992.1%Not listed2.1%2¢ bid, 2.1¢ askpolled, 42s ago2.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)110,000 to 114,999.992.1%Kalshi 2.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
110,000 to 114,999.99
2.1%
Not listed
2.1%
2¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
2.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
110,000 to 114,999.99
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 110,000 to 114,999.99
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,762 (47.6x)
- Volume
- $673K
78,0001.8%1.8%1.4¢ bid, 2.1¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed2.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)78,0001.8%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
78,000
1.8%
1.8%
1.4¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
2.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
78,000
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 78,000
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,762 (47.6x)
- Volume
- $11K
55,000 to 59,999.991.7%Not listed1.7%1.6¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 42s ago1.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)55,000 to 59,999.991.7%Kalshi 1.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
55,000 to 59,999.99
1.7%
Not listed
1.7%
1.6¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
1.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
55,000 to 59,999.99
1.7%
Kalshi 1.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 55,000 to 59,999.99
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $2.4M
50,000 to 54,999.991.4%Not listed1.4%1.3¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 42s ago1.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)50,000 to 54,999.991.4%Kalshi 1.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
50,000 to 54,999.99
1.4%
Not listed
1.4%
1.3¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
1.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
50,000 to 54,999.99
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 50,000 to 54,999.99
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $2.6M
115,000 to 119,999.991.3%Not listed1.3%1.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 42s ago1.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)115,000 to 119,999.991.3%Kalshi 1.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
115,000 to 119,999.99
1.3%
Not listed
1.3%
1.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
1.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
115,000 to 119,999.99
1.3%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 115,000 to 119,999.99
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $586K
45,000 to 49,999.991.1%Not listed1.1%1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 42s ago1.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)45,000 to 49,999.991.1%Kalshi 1.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
45,000 to 49,999.99
1.1%
Not listed
1.1%
1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
1.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
45,000 to 49,999.99
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 45,000 to 49,999.99
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $2.7M
120,000 to 124,999.991%Not listed1%0.9¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 42s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)120,000 to 124,999.991%Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
120,000 to 124,999.99
1%
Not listed
1%
0.9¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
120,000 to 124,999.99
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 120,000 to 124,999.99
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $703K
125,000 to 129,999.990.8%Not listed0.8%0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $12,500 (125x)125,000 to 129,999.990.8%Kalshi 0.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
125,000 to 129,999.99
0.8%
Not listed
0.8%
0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
125,000 to 129,999.99
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 125,000 to 129,999.99
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $626K
77,0000.8%0.8%0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)77,0000.8%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
77,000
0.8%
0.8%
0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
77,000
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 77,000
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $4K
40,000 to 44,999.990.7%Not listed0.7%0.6¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $14,286 (143x)40,000 to 44,999.990.7%Kalshi 0.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
40,000 to 44,999.99
0.7%
Not listed
0.7%
0.6¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
40,000 to 44,999.99
0.7%
Kalshi 0.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 40,000 to 44,999.99
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $1.9M
86,0000.7%0.7%0.6¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)86,0000.7%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
86,000
0.7%
0.7%
0.6¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
86,000
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 86,000
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $1K
150,000 or above0.7%Not listed0.7%0.6¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $14,286 (143x)150,000 or above0.7%Kalshi 0.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
150,000 or above
0.7%
Not listed
0.7%
0.6¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
150,000 or above
0.7%
Kalshi 0.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 150,000 or above
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $2.2M
35,000 to 39,999.990.6%Not listed0.6%0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $16,667 (167x)35,000 to 39,999.990.6%Kalshi 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
35,000 to 39,999.99
0.6%
Not listed
0.6%
0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
35,000 to 39,999.99
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 35,000 to 39,999.99
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $1.8M
130,000 to 134,999.990.6%Not listed0.6%0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $16,667 (167x)130,000 to 134,999.990.6%Kalshi 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
130,000 to 134,999.99
0.6%
Not listed
0.6%
0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
130,000 to 134,999.99
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 130,000 to 134,999.99
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $588K
19,999.99 or below0.5%Not listed0.5%0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $20,000 (200x)19,999.99 or below0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
19,999.99 or below
0.5%
Not listed
0.5%
0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
19,999.99 or below
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 19,999.99 or below
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $863K
30,000 to 34,999.990.5%Not listed0.5%0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $20,000 (200x)30,000 to 34,999.990.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
30,000 to 34,999.99
0.5%
Not listed
0.5%
0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
30,000 to 34,999.99
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 30,000 to 34,999.99
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $1.1M
20,000 to 24,999.990.4%Not listed0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)20,000 to 24,999.990.4%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
20,000 to 24,999.99
0.4%
Not listed
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
20,000 to 24,999.99
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 20,000 to 24,999.99
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $1.0M
25,000 to 29,999.990.4%Not listed0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)25,000 to 29,999.990.4%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
25,000 to 29,999.99
0.4%
Not listed
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
25,000 to 29,999.99
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 25,000 to 29,999.99
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $841K
135,000 to 139,999.990.4%Not listed0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)135,000 to 139,999.990.4%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
135,000 to 139,999.99
0.4%
Not listed
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
135,000 to 139,999.99
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 135,000 to 139,999.99
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $591K
140,000 to 144,999.990.4%Not listed0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)140,000 to 144,999.990.4%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
140,000 to 144,999.99
0.4%
Not listed
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
140,000 to 144,999.99
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 140,000 to 144,999.99
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $628K
87,0000.4%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)87,0000.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
87,000
0.4%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
87,000
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 87,000
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
76,0000.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)76,0000.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
76,000
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
76,000
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 76,000
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
145,000 to 149,999.990.3%Not listed0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 42s ago0.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $33,333 (333x)145,000 to 149,999.990.3%Kalshi 0.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
145,000 to 149,999.99
0.3%
Not listed
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
0.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
145,000 to 149,999.99
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 145,000 to 149,999.99
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $720K
74,0000.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)74,0000.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
74,000
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
74,000
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 74,000
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
75,0000.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)75,0000.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
75,000
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
75,000
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 75,000
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
88,0000.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)88,0000.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
88,000
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
88,000
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 88,000
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $100
89,0000.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 42s agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)89,0000.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
89,000
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 42s ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
89,000
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 89,000
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $15
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 82,000
- 81,000
- 83,000
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 82,000 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What price will Bitcoin hit on October 23?". 82,000 leads at 85.3%. Next is 81,000 at 46.5%. $42.9M has traded across 44 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.
What price will Bitcoin hit on October 23?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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