The Prediction Markets

What price will Ethereum hit in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$757K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

2,400 93.5%

Next is 2,500 at 77.4%. The venues differ most on 2,000 (Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 22%), a 4.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
2,400
93.5%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 1 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
2,400
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
87¢
Trade this on Polymarket
2,500
77.4%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,500
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2,500.00
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 77¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 79¢.

2,300
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,300
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Polymarket
2,600
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,600
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,200
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,200
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,700
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,700
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2,750.00
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2,750.00
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
2,100
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,100
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,800
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,800
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,000
18.6%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,000
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $2,000.00
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 18¢ and selling on Kalshi at 21¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Show 21 more outcomes
2,900
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,900
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
1,900
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,900
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,000
13.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,000
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3,000.00
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

1,800
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,800
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,100
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,100
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $3,250.00
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3,250.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $1,750.00
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1,750.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
1,700
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,700
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Polymarket
1,600
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,600
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $4,000.00
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4,000.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
3,500
2.8%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,500
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3,500.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.6¢.

1,500
2.1%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,500
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1,500.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.1¢.

Above $3,750.00
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3,750.00
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $1,000.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1,000.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $1,250.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1,250.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $250.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $250.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $500.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $500.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $750.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $750.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1,400
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,400
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
1,300
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,300
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $4,250.00
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4,250.00
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: 2,000 asks 18¢ on Polymarket and bids 21¢ on Kalshi (300 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2,400
  • 2,500
  • 2,300

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 2,400 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What price will Ethereum hit in November?". 2,400 leads at 93.5%. Next is 2,500 at 77.4%. $757K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

What price will Ethereum hit in November?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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