The Prediction Markets

What will the ETH floor price of Chain Runners be on December 2?

Closed
Dec 2, 2021
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Dec 2, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: opensea.io

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will the ETH floor price of Chain Runners be on December 2? ". $24K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Dec 2, 2021.

This is a scalar market on what the floor price of Chain Runners will be on December 2, 2021, at 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is .75 ETH and the upper bound is 2.5 ETH. The resolution source for this market will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/chain-runners-nft). Only listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at 12:00 PM ET will be used. If no floor price is available at the resolution time, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at 12:00 PM ET will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time. You can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the floor price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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