The Prediction Markets

What will the Ethereum Implied Volatility Index hit by November 30?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

45 56%

Next is 65 at 54.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
45
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
45
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
65
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
65
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
60
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
60
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
50
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
50
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
70
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
70
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
80
14.4%
Polymarket 14.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $599 (5.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
80
Last price
14.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16.7¢
Sell Yes
12.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$599 (5.99x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
40
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
40
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$679
Trade this on Polymarket
90
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
90
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Polymarket
100
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
100
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
35
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
35
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$649
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 45
  • 65
  • 60

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the Ethereum Implied Volatility Index hit by November 30?". 45 leads at 56%. Next is 65 at 54.5%. $4K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1-minute candle for the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (EVIV) between the creation of this market and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, has a final "High" or "Low" value equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High values, below for ↓ Low values) the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart becomes unavailable or Volmex discontinues the index, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after the specified date; if data remains unavailable at that point, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. No substitute index or data provider will be used. The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" and "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/EVIV, with the chart set to "1m" on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index as displayed on Volmex. Values from other data providers or other indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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