The Prediction Markets

Where will it rain on Nov 13, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$525K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
34 min ago
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What the markets expect

Boston 99%

Next is Columbus at 99%. The venues differ most on Miami, FL (Polymarket 54.7%, Kalshi 99%), a 44-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 35 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Boston
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Columbus
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Columbus
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lexington
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Lexington
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
New York City
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
New York City
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Newark
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Newark
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Providence
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Providence
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Seattle
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Seattle
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Trenton
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Trenton
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Philadelphia, PA
99%
Polymarket 98.9%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 99%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philadelphia, PA
Last price
98.9%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
97.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 99¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99.9¢.

Los Angeles, CA
98.6%
Polymarket 97.5%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 99%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles, CA
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 99¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99.9¢.

Show 25 more outcomes
San Francisco, CA
98.6%
Polymarket 97.5%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 99%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
San Francisco, CA
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 99¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99.9¢.

Miami, FL
87.9%
Polymarket 54.7%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 99%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miami, FL
Last price
54.7%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miami
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 99¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99.9¢.

Albuquerque
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Albuquerque
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phoenix, AZ
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 35 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phoenix, AZ
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Las Vegas
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Detroit
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Detroit
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pittsburgh
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pittsburgh
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington, DC
7.1%
Polymarket 25.4%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington, DC
Last price
25.4%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
49.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$201 (2.01x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Washington DC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Indianapolis
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indianapolis
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chicago
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chicago
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Milwaukee
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Milwaukee
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
West Palm Beach
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
West Palm Beach
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
College Station
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
College Station
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Denver
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denver
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Kalshi
Minneapolis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minneapolis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oklahoma City
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oklahoma City
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
San Antonio
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Antonio
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$851
Trade this on Kalshi
Springfield
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Springfield
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
St. Louis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
St. Louis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tampa
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tampa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Atlanta, GA
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atlanta, GA
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Atlanta
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

New Orleans, LA
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Orleans, LA
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$481
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Orleans
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Houston, TX
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Houston, TX
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Houston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Dallas, TX
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 34 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas, TX
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 35 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$356
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 34 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$214
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 35 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the NWS Daily Climate Report precipitation for each city's station. Kalshi pays on 'strictly greater than 0 inches'; Polymarket on 0.01 in or more and excludes trace. Treat a trace report as a possible split.
  • City lists differ; only cities on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 14, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 14, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: forecast.weather.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the NWS Daily Climate Report precipitation for each city's station. Kalshi pays on 'strictly greater than 0 inches'; Polymarket on 0.01 in or more and excludes trace. Treat a trace report as a possible split.
  • City lists differ; only cities on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Nov 14, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 14, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Boston
  • Columbus
  • Lexington

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Boston for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Where will it rain on Nov 13, 2026?". Boston leads at 99%. Next is Columbus at 99%. $525K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 14, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Where will it rain on Nov 13, 2026? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets