The Prediction Markets

Which cryptocurrency will perform better in December 2021: Bitcoin or Ethereum?

Closed
Jan 1, 2022
Traded
$111K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jan 1, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: coingecko.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which cryptocurrency will perform better in December 2021: Bitcoin or Ethereum?". $111K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jan 1, 2022.

This is the market on the relative change (%) of the USD prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the month of December 2021. The change of prices will be calculated by dividing the price dated 1 January 2022 (ET) by the price dated 1 December 2021, ie: ΔB = [BTC/USD price on January 1, 2022] / [BTC/USD price on December 1, 2021] ΔE = [ETH/USD price on January 1, 2022] / [ETH/USD price on December 1, 2021] If, after the resolution time (January 1st, 2022), ΔB is greater than ΔE, this market will resolve to "Bitcoin". If, after the resolution time (January 1st, 2022), ΔE is greater than ΔB, this market will resolve to "Ethereum". If they are exactly equal then the market will resolve 50/50. ---------------------- To resolve the market, Coingecko's historical daily prices will be used and can be seen under "Historical Data" tab on the following sites: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data/usd#panel https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum/historical_data/usd#panel ) This market will resolve on the December 31 2021 Close price, which will be the same as January 1 2022 Open price. Note also, that the daily open price refers to 30-min candlestick open price at 12 AM in the UTC+0 Time Zone and is also used in the "1y" line chart view. ---------------------- The opening prices for December 1st were: Bitcoin: $57,011 Ethereum: $4,637.12

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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