The Prediction Markets

Who will Conor McGregor fight next?

Ends in about 419 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Max Holloway 32.6%

Next is Michael Chandler at 22.3%. The venues differ most on Michael Chandler (Polymarket 25%, Kalshi 14%), a 11-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Max Holloway
32.6%
Polymarket 33.8%polled, 19s agoKalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Max Holloway
Last price
33.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35.5¢
Sell Yes
32.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$282 (2.82x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Max Holloway
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

Michael ChandlerArb
22.3%
Polymarket 25%polled, 19s agoKalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Chandler
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Chandler
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 24¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

Nate Diaz
10.9%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nate Diaz
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nate Diaz
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Justin Gaethje
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Gaethje
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Holland
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Holland
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Ian Garry
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ian Garry
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paddy Pimblett
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paddy Pimblett
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Charles Oliveira
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Oliveira
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dustin Poirier
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dustin Poirier
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ian Garry
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ian Machado Garry
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Ilia Topuria
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ilia Topuria
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamaru Usman
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamaru Usman
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Leon Edwards
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leon Edwards
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Renato Moicano
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Renato Moicano
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jorge Masvidal
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jorge Masvidal
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$724
Trade this on Polymarket
Arman Tsarukyan
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arman Tsarukyan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Hooker
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Hooker
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
King Green
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
King Green
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mauricio Ruffy
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mauricio Ruffy
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rafael dos Anjos
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rafael dos Anjos
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rafael Fiziev
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rafael Fiziev
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Michael Chandler on Kalshi at 14¢, sell on Polymarket at 24¢ (1000 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jul 12, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Max Holloway
  • Michael Chandler
  • Nate Diaz

Live prices for Max Holloway

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Conor McGregor fight next?". Max Holloway leads at 32.6%. Next is Michael Chandler at 22.3%. $30K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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