The Prediction Markets

Who will Dricus Du Plessis fight next?

Ends in about 423 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$98K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
41 min ago
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What the markets expect

Brendan Allen 23%

Next is Nasourdine Imavov at 12.2%. The venues differ most on Sean Strickland (Polymarket 5.1%, Kalshi 15%), a 9.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 41 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Brendan Allen
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brendan Allen
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Kalshi
Nasourdine Imavov
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 13.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $741 (7.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nasourdine Imavov
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
10.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nasourdine Imavov
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nassourdine Imavov
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
Gregory Rodrigues
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gregory Rodrigues
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Strickland
7.6%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 41 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Strickland
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Strickland
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 41 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 90¢.

Khamzat Chimaev
6%
Polymarket 4%polled, 41 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khamzat Chimaev
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Khamzat Chimaev
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 41 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 6.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 440 bps before fees.

Joe Pyfer
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Pyfer
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Kalshi
Caio Borralho
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Caio Borralho
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthony Hernandez
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Hernandez
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel Adesanya
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel Adesanya
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Reinier de Ridder
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reinier de Ridder
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Whittaker
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Whittaker
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Abus Magomedov
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abus Magomedov
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bo Nickal
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bo Nickal
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Christian Leroy Duncan
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christian Leroy Duncan
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ikram Aliskerov
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ikram Aliskerov
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Cannonier
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Cannonier
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Paulo Costa
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paulo Costa
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Shara Magomedov
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shara Magomedov
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Roman Kopylov
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 41 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roman Kopylov
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 41 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Indicative gap, prices are 41 min old: Khamzat Chimaev asks 6.6¢ on Polymarket and bids 11¢ on Kalshi (440 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jul 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Brendan Allen
  • Nasourdine Imavov
  • Nasourdine Imavov

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Brendan Allen for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Dricus Du Plessis fight next?". Brendan Allen leads at 23%. Next is Nasourdine Imavov at 12.2%. $98K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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