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What the markets expect
Merab Dvalishvili 30.8%
Next is Petr Yan at 24.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 43 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Merab Dvalishvili30.8%41%30.8% fair41¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 43 min ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Merab Dvalishvili30.8%Kalshi 41%(30.8% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Merab Dvalishvili
30.8%
41%
30.8% fair
41¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Merab Dvalishvili
30.8%
Kalshi 41%(30.8% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Last price
- 41%
- Fair, margin removed
- 30.8%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $2K
Petr Yan24.8%33%24.8% fair16¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 43 min ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Petr Yan24.8%Kalshi 33%(24.8% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Petr Yan
24.8%
33%
24.8% fair
16¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Petr Yan
24.8%
Kalshi 33%(24.8% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Petr Yan
- Last price
- 33%
- Fair, margin removed
- 24.8%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $2K
Payton Talbott10.5%14%10.5% fair5¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 43 min ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Payton Talbott10.5%Kalshi 14%(10.5% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Payton Talbott
10.5%
14%
10.5% fair
5¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Payton Talbott
10.5%
Kalshi 14%(10.5% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Payton Talbott
- Last price
- 14%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $767
Sean O'Malley6.8%9%6.8% fair9¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 43 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Sean O'Malley6.8%Kalshi 9%(6.8% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Sean O'Malley
6.8%
9%
6.8% fair
9¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Sean O'Malley
6.8%
Kalshi 9%(6.8% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sean O'Malley
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.8%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $544
Mario Bautista4.5%6%4.5% fair6¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 43 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Mario Bautista4.5%Kalshi 6%(4.5% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Mario Bautista
4.5%
6%
4.5% fair
6¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Mario Bautista
4.5%
Kalshi 6%(4.5% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mario Bautista
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $1K
Cory Sandhagen3.8%5%3.8% fair— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 43 min ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Cory Sandhagen3.8%Kalshi 5%(3.8% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Cory Sandhagen
3.8%
5%
3.8% fair
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Cory Sandhagen
3.8%
Kalshi 5%(3.8% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cory Sandhagen
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $247
David Martinez1.9%2.5%1.9% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)David Martinez1.9%Kalshi 2.5%(1.9% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
David Martinez
1.9%
2.5%
1.9% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
David Martinez
1.9%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.9% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Martinez
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Montel Jackson1.9%2.5%1.9% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Montel Jackson1.9%Kalshi 2.5%(1.9% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Montel Jackson
1.9%
2.5%
1.9% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Montel Jackson
1.9%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.9% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Montel Jackson
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Raul Rosas Jr.1.9%2.5%1.9% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Raul Rosas Jr.1.9%Kalshi 2.5%(1.9% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Raul Rosas Jr.
1.9%
2.5%
1.9% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Raul Rosas Jr.
1.9%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.9% fair)polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raul Rosas Jr.
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Aiemann Zahabi1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Aiemann Zahabi1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Aiemann Zahabi
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Aiemann Zahabi
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aiemann Zahabi
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Kyler Phillips1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Kyler Phillips1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kyler Phillips
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kyler Phillips
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyler Phillips
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Marcus McGhee1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Marcus McGhee1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Marcus McGhee
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Marcus McGhee
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marcus McGhee
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Marlon Vera1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Marlon Vera1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Marlon Vera
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Marlon Vera
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marlon Vera
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Umar Nurmagomedov1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Umar Nurmagomedov1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Umar Nurmagomedov
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Umar Nurmagomedov
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Umar Nurmagomedov
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Adrian Yanez1.2%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 43 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Adrian Yanez1.2%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Adrian Yanez
1.2%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Adrian Yanez
1.2%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Adrian Yanez
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Bryce Mitchell1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 43 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Bryce Mitchell1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Bryce Mitchell
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Bryce Mitchell
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bryce Mitchell
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Charles Jourdain1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 43 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Charles Jourdain1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Charles Jourdain
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Charles Jourdain
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Charles Jourdain
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Deiveson Figueiredo1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 43 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Deiveson Figueiredo1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Deiveson Figueiredo
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Deiveson Figueiredo
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Rob Font1.1%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 43 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Rob Font1.1%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Rob Font
1.1%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 43 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Rob Font
1.1%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rob Font
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 43 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Petr Yan
- Payton Talbott
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will Song Yadong fight next?". Merab Dvalishvili leads at 30.8%. Next is Petr Yan at 24.8%. $6K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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