The Prediction Markets

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Closed
Jul 30, 2026
Traded
$545K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jacob Tsimerman
84.5%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacob Tsimerman
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hong Wang
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hong Wang
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Pardon
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Pardon
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yu Deng
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yu Deng
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$123K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vesselin Dimitrov
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vesselin Dimitrov
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Jack Thorne
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jack Thorne
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$101K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aleksandr Logunov
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aleksandr Logunov
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$263
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Raskin
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Raskin
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Julian Sahasrabudhe
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julian Sahasrabudhe
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$85K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Efimov
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Efimov
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Polymarket
Will Sawin
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3038 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Will Sawin
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jacob Tsimerman
  • Hong Wang
  • John Pardon

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?". Jacob Tsimerman last traded at 84.5%. Next is Hong Wang at 72.5%. $545K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jul 30, 2026.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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