The Prediction Markets

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
11 min ago
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What the markets expect

Kylian Mbappe 25.8%

Next is Lamine Yamal at 25.6%. The venues differ most on Harry Kane (Polymarket 7.8%, Kalshi 33%), a 25-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 11 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kylian Mbappe
25.8%
Polymarket 23%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 34%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kylian Mbappé
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kylian Mbappe
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 24¢ and selling on Kalshi at 34¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

Lamine Yamal
25.6%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 26%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 26¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 26¢.

Harry Kane
15.7%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
7.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.9¢.

Raphinha
13.8%
Polymarket 10%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphinha
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphinha
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

Cole Palmer
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cole Palmer
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Olise
7.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Olise
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Olise
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.5¢.

Erling Haaland
5.4%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8.8¢.

Desire Doue
4.4%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Desire Doue
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Desire Doue
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 56¢.

Jude Bellingham
2.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Declan Rice
2.3%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Declan Rice
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Declan Rice
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.9¢ nets 190 bps before fees.

Show 70 more outcomes
Ousmane Dembele
2.2%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ousmane Dembélé
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ousmane Dembele
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.8¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Vitinha
2.1%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vitinha
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$554
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vitinha
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Julian Alvarez
1.6%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julian Alvarez
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julian Alvarez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Rodri
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rodri
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rodri
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.2¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Bukayo Saka
1.2%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bukayo Saka
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bukayo Saka
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Fabian Ruiz
1.1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabian Ruiz
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fabian Ruiz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

William Saliba
1.1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
William Saliba
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
William Saliba
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Alexander Isak
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Isak
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Isak
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Luis Diaz
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Diaz
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Diaz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Marc Cucurella
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Cucurella
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marc Cucurella
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Bruno Fernandes
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Mohamed Salah
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohamed Salah
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mohamed Salah
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Alisson Becker
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alisson Becker
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Kalshi
Cristiano Ronaldo
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristiano Ronaldo
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$746
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cristiano Ronaldo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Achraf Hakimi
1%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Achraf Hakimi
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Achraf Hakimi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Joao Neves
0.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
João Neves
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joao Neves
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Lautaro Martinez
0.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lautaro Martinez
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lautaro Martinez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Lionel Messi
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Arda Guler
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arda Guler
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bradley Barcola
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bradley Barcola
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dani Olmo
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dani Olmo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
David Raya
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Raya
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dayot Upamecano
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dayot Upamecano
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Emiliano Martinez
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emiliano Martinez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Endrick
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Endrick
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Enzo Fernandez
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Enzo Fernandez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Estevao
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estevao
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Federico Valverde
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Federico Valverde
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ferran Torres
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ferran Torres
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Florian Wirtz
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florian Wirtz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gabriel Magalhaes
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Magalhaes
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavi
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gianluigi Donnarumma
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hugo Ekitike
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hugo Ekitike
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamal Musiala
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamal Musiala
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Doku
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Doku
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joan Garcia
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joan Garcia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joao Pedro
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joao Pedro
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Julian Quinones
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julian Quinones
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kenan Yildiz
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kenan Yildiz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lennart Karl
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lennart Karl
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marcus Rashford
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marcus Rashford
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marquinhos
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marquinhos
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin Odegaard
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martin Odegaard
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moises Caicedo
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moises Caicedo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nico Paz
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Paz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nico Williams
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Williams
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuno Mendes
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuno Mendes
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Omar Marmoush
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar Marmoush
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pau Cubarsi
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pau Cubarsi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedri
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedri
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Phil Foden
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Foden
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rafael Leao
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rafael Leao
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Lewandowski
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Lewandowski
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sadio Mane
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sadio Mane
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Savinho
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Savinho
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott McTominay
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott McTominay
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Serhou Guirassy
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Serhou Guirassy
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Thibaut Courtois
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thibaut Courtois
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tijjani Reijnders
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tijjani Reijnders
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Unai Simon
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unai Simon
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Victor Osimhen
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Victor Osimhen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Viktor Gyokeres
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Viktor Gyokeres
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Vinicius Junior
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vinicius Junior
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Warren Zaire-Emery
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warren Zaire-Emery
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Willian Pacho
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Willian Pacho
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Xavi Simons
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xavi Simons
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Yan Diomande
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yan Diomande
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rayan Cherki
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 11 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 11 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rayan Cherki
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rayan Cherki
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 11 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 11 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Indicative gap, prices are 11 min old: Kylian Mbappe asks 24¢ on Polymarket and bids 34¢ on Kalshi (1000 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: France Football, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kylian Mbappe
  • Lamine Yamal
  • Harry Kane

Live prices for Kylian Mbappe

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027?". Kylian Mbappe leads at 25.8%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 25.6%. $14K has traded across 80 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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