The Prediction Markets

Will CryptoPunks flip Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) by August 1?

Closed
Aug 1, 2022
Traded
$39K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 1, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: larvalabs.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will CryptoPunks flip Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) by August 1?". $39K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 1, 2022.

This is a market on whether the floor price of CryptoPunks will surpass the floor price of BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) between May 9, 12:00 PM ET and market resolution time, August 1 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for CryptoPunks will be (https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#), specifically the price of the cheapest CryptoPunk for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour prior to each check time are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time). The resolution source for BAYC will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub), specifically the price of the cheapest Bored Ape for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time. Both sources will be checked at 12 PM ET and 12 AM ET each day, starting with the first check time at May 9, 2022, 12 PM ET, until the last check on August 1 2022, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any check time the floor price of CryptoPunks is higher than BAYC. If by the final check the floor price of CryptoPunks was never above the BAYC floor price on any check, this market will resolve to "No". If the resolution sources are unavailable at a check time, other credible sources may be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More crypto markets

See all crypto markets