The Prediction Markets

Will Ethereum's price have a 10% or more daily change on any day in April 2022?

Closed
Apr 30, 2022
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 30, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: coingecko.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Ethereum's price have a 10% or more daily change on any day in April 2022?". $21K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 30, 2022.

This is a market on whether Ethereum's ($ETH) price will sustain a daily change of 10% or more, in terms of relative change in their USD prices, on any day within this market timeframe. The resolution source is https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum/historical_data/usd#panel. If the open price of $ETH on any day in April 2022 had a 10% or more absolute percentage difference from its open price the day before, the market will resolve to “Yes.” Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The following example shows how the absolute percentage difference is calculated. If the open price of $ETH was $3100 on April 10, and the open price of $ETH was $3400 on April 9, the percentage difference would be | ((3100-3400)/(3400)) | * 100 = 8.82%, which would not suffice to resolve the market to “Yes.” This market's timeframe spans from April 1, 2022 to April 30, 2022 (inclusive). The resolution source will be checked daily at 11 AM ET, checking all the days beforehand. The last check will be May 1, 2022, 11 AM ET. If data is unavailable, another source (e.g. CoinMarketCap) will be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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