The Prediction Markets

Will Soneium launch a token by ___?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 57 days
Traded
$101K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

December 31, 2027 71.5%

Next is March 31, 2027 at 42.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
December 31, 2027
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31, 2027
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$456
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30, 2027
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exponent
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exponent
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenSea
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenSea
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fomo
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fomo
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Arc
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arc
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
CME Group
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
CME Group
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
MetaMask
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
MetaMask
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Ostium
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ostium
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abstract
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abstract
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phantom
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phantom
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Base
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Base
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Felix
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Felix
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rabby
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rabby
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tempo
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tempo
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Unit
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unit
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: project, CoinDesk, CoinTelegraph

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2027
  • March 31, 2027
  • June 30, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list December 31, 2027 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Soneium launch a token by ___?". December 31, 2027 leads at 71.5%. Next is March 31, 2027 at 42.5%. $101K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Soneium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Soneium after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Soneium (https://x.com/soneium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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