The Prediction Markets

Will the Aave USDC yield hit ___ in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 57 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
27 min ago
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What the markets expect

6% 80.4%

Next is 8% at 48%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 27 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
6%
80.4%
Polymarket 80.4%polled, 27 min agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
6%
Last price
80.4%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
60.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
8%
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 27 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
8%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
10%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 27 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
10%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: defillama.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 6%
  • 8%
  • 10%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will the Aave USDC yield hit ___ in 2026?". 6% leads at 80.4%. Next is 8% at 48%. $1K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any finalized daily supply APY datapoint for the Aave V3 USDC pool reported by DefiLlama is equal to or greater than the listed value for any date between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The APY value used for resolution is the "Daily" series displayed on the Supply APY chart, as shown by the "Total APY" figure when hovering over a datapoint. The pool referenced in this market is the USDC pool on Aave V3 on Ethereum mainnet, as identified by the resolution source URL below. A daily datapoint must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next day's datapoint is published, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure is finalized, or once the datapoint for December 31, 2026 is finalized without the listed value having been met. If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026 — for any reason, including unavailability of the resolution source — this market will resolve to "No". No substitute data source will be used. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to DefiLlama differing from other sources. Otherwise, once a finalized daily datapoint has met or exceeded the listed value, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the Aave V3 USDC pool page available at https://defillama.com/yields/pool/aa70268e-4b52-42bf-a116-608b370f9501, as presented there by default with no filters applied and without additional rounding.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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