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What the markets expect
Sorana Cirstea 31%
Next is Alexandra Eala at 28%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Sorana Cirstea31%31%21¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 2 h ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Sorana Cirstea31%Kalshi 31%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Sorana Cirstea
31%
31%
21¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Sorana Cirstea
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sorana Cirstea
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $455
Alexandra Eala28%28%27¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 2 h ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Alexandra Eala28%Kalshi 28%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Alexandra Eala
28%
28%
27¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Alexandra Eala
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexandra Eala
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $3K
Alexandra Shubladze19.5%19.5%— bid, 39¢ askpolled, 2 h ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Alexandra Shubladze19.5%Kalshi 19.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Alexandra Shubladze
19.5%
19.5%
— bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Alexandra Shubladze
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexandra Shubladze
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Antonia Ruzic19.5%19.5%— bid, 39¢ askpolled, 2 h ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Antonia Ruzic19.5%Kalshi 19.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Antonia Ruzic
19.5%
19.5%
— bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Antonia Ruzic
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Antonia Ruzic
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Elena Pridankina19.5%19.5%— bid, 39¢ askpolled, 2 h ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Elena Pridankina19.5%Kalshi 19.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Elena Pridankina
19.5%
19.5%
— bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Elena Pridankina
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Elena Pridankina
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Mary Stoiana19.5%19.5%— bid, 39¢ askpolled, 2 h ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Mary Stoiana19.5%Kalshi 19.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Mary Stoiana
19.5%
19.5%
— bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Mary Stoiana
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mary Stoiana
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Maria Sakkari13%13%13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 2 h ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Maria Sakkari13%Kalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Maria Sakkari
13%
13%
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Maria Sakkari
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maria Sakkari
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Claire Liu11%11%— bid, 22¢ askpolled, 2 h ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Claire Liu11%Kalshi 11%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Claire Liu
11%
11%
— bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Claire Liu
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Claire Liu
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Aliaksandra Sasnovich8%8%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 2 h ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Aliaksandra Sasnovich8%Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
8%
8%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aliaksandra Sasnovich
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Zeynep Sonmez7%7%3¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 2 h ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Zeynep Sonmez7%Kalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Zeynep Sonmez
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Zeynep Sonmez
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zeynep Sonmez
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Tereza Valentova5%5%1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 2 h ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Tereza Valentova5%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Tereza Valentova
5%
5%
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Tereza Valentova
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tereza Valentova
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Xinyu Wang3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 2 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Xinyu Wang3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Xinyu Wang
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Xinyu Wang
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Xinyu Wang
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, WTA, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Sorana Cirstea
- Alexandra Eala
- Alexandra Shubladze
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "WTA Hong Kong Winner". Sorana Cirstea leads at 31%. Next is Alexandra Eala at 28%. $4K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 12, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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