Current Status
Live
Leading Outcome
Democrats, ≥2% 97.0%
V2 BetaOptimized UI
Trade NowLive marketEnds Feb 3, 2027 (3mo)Updated 3d ago
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Live prediction market odds for "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)". Democrats, ≥2% is leading at 97.0%. The next most likely outcome is Democrats, ≥4% at 89.0%. Total volume is $184K across 21 active outcomes. We currently show 1 cross-platform pricing comparisons. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Feb 3, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Democrats, ≥2%
97.0%
Total Vol
$184K
Across 2 venues
Platforms
2
2 comparable
Best Spread
530 bps
Arb opportunity
Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Democrats, ≥2%
$2K volume
97.0%
—
Democrats, ≥4%
$2K volume
89.0%
—
Democrats, ≥6%
$7K volume
87.0%
—
Democrats, ≥8%
$9K volume
66.0%
—
Democrats, ≥10%
$9K volume
49.0%
—
Other
Volume n/a
45.5%
—
Democrats 8-10%
$16K volume
29.0%
—
Democrats 10-12%
$10K volume
22.5%
—
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)". Democrats, ≥2% is leading at 97.0%. The next most likely outcome is Democrats, ≥4% at 89.0%. Total volume is $184K across 21 active outcomes. We currently show 1 cross-platform pricing comparisons. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Feb 3, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Feb 3, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Matching labels identify likely equivalent outcomes, but settlement rules may differ. A “Rules unverified” label means the comparison is not a verified arbitrage opportunity.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
unavailableConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.
Outcome Leaderboards by Platform
Polymarket
Other
45.5%
Democrats 8-10%
29.0%
Democrats 10-12%
22.5%
Democrats 6-8%
17.5%
Kalshi
Democrats, ≥2%
97.0%
Democrats, ≥4%
89.0%
Democrats, ≥6%
87.0%
Democrats, ≥8%
66.0%
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