The Prediction Markets

2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$128K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on May 7, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 174 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Reform
96.3%
Polymarket 96.8%polled, 4196 h agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reform
Last price
96.8%
As of
Polled 174 d ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
96.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Green
1.6%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 4196 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 174 d ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour
1.5%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4196 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 174 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conservative
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4196 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conservative
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 174 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Liberal Democrats
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4196 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liberal Democrats
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 174 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Reform
  • Green
  • Labour

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner". Reform last traded at 96.3%. Next is Green at 1.6%. $128K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 7, 2026.

United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets