The Prediction Markets

2028 Republican nominee for President?

Starts in 746 daysKickoff
Traded
$786.2M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

J.D. Vance 45.7%

Next is Marco Rubio at 16.9%. The venues differ most on J.D. Vance (Polymarket 44%, Kalshi 41%), a 3.0-point gap.

J.D. Vance 45.7%Marco Rubio 16.9%Ron DeSantis 3.9%Tucker Carlson 3.2%Donald Trump Jr. 2.7%45 others 27.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

11 of 88 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
J.D. VanceArb
45.7%
Polymarket 44%(47.3% fair)polled, 46s agoKalshi 41%(40.2% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
44%
Fair, margin removed
47.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44.2¢
Sell Yes
43.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$226 (2.26x)
Volume
$16.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
J.D. Vance
Price
41%
Fair, margin removed
40.2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$4.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 42¢ and selling on Polymarket at 43.7¢ nets 170 bps before fees.

Marco RubioArb
16.9%
Polymarket 15.2%(16.4% fair)polled, 46s agoKalshi 18%live, just nowBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
15.2%
Fair, margin removed
16.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.3¢
Sell Yes
15.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$654 (6.54x)
Volume
$10.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Price
18%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 15.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 170 bps before fees.

Ron DeSantisArb
3.9%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 46s agoKalshi 4.9%live, just nowBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$15.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Price
4.9%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$3.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4.8¢ nets 130 bps before fees.

Tucker CarlsonArb
3.2%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 2.8%live, just nowBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$13.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Price
2.8%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$4.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2.8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Donald Trump Jr.
2.7%
Kalshi 2.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Ted CruzArb
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 46s agoKalshi 2.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$19.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2.3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.4¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Donald Trump
2.4%
Kalshi 2.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$4.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Trump
2.1%
Polymarket 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
1.8%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$9.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivanka Trump
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$8.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

Show 44 more outcomes
Thomas Massie
1%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$6.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.9¢.

Chris Christie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Christie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Sununu
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Sununu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$678
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeff Bezos
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeff Bezos
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Kent
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Kennedy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lara Trump
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lara Trump
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spencer Pratt
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spencer Pratt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$333K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wesley Hunt
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wesley Hunt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Brian KempArb
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$18.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$2.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1.5¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

Glenn YoungkinArb
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$8.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Josh HawleyArb
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$20.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.6¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Pete Hegseth
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.6%live, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$9.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Price
0.6%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.5¢.

Ben Shapiro
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Shapiro
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Candace Owens
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$933K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Doug Burgum
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Greg Abbott
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$21.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.3¢.

Marjorie Taylor Greene
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.4%live, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$6.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Price
0.4%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.4¢.

Rand Paul
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$19.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.4¢.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.4¢.

Tom Cotton
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.4%live, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cotton
Price
0.4%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$771K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.4¢.

Byron DonaldsArb
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.7%live, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$44.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds
Price
0.7%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.6¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Katie Britt
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Britt
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$29.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Katie Britt
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.3¢.

Tim Scott
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Scott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Tulsi Gabbard
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$14.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.3¢.

Elon Musk
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$31.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Eric TrumpArb
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.3¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Mike Pence
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Pence
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$43.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Pence
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Nikki HaleyArb
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.4%live, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikki Haley
Price
0.4%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.3¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Sarah Huckabee SandersArb
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.6%live, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$36.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Price
0.6%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 0.5¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Steve Bannon
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$23.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$902K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Vivek Ramaswamy
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.2%live, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$16.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Price
0.2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Joe Kent
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Kent
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Joe Kent
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
John N. Kennedy
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$997K
Trade this on Polymarket
John McEntee
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
John McEntee
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$414K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicki Minaj
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Elise Stefanik
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elise Stefanik
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$28.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elise Stefanik
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$714K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

Erika Kirk
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$19.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

John Thune
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Thune
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$38.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Thune
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$460K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Kristi Noem
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$37.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$635K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Matt Gaetz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Gaetz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$20.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Gaetz
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kim Kardashian
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$28.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Johnson
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Johnson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$884K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rick Scott
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$816K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Brady
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Brady
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$33.0M
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy J.D. Vance on Kalshi at 42¢, sell on Polymarket at 43.7¢ (170 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republican Party
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • J.D. Vance
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ron DeSantis

Live prices for J.D. Vance

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2028 Republican nominee for President?". J.D. Vance leads at 45.7%. Next is Marco Rubio at 16.9%. $786.2M has traded across 54 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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