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ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
2% or above 98%
Next is 2.25% or above at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 13 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
2% or above98%98%77¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 13 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)2% or above98%Kalshi 98%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
2% or above
98%
98%
77¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
2% or above
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2% or above
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $5K
2.25% or above94%94%36¢ bid, — askpolled, 13 min agoNo ask2.25% or above94%Kalshi 94%polled, 13 min ago
2.25% or above
94%
94%
36¢ bid, — ask
polled, 13 min ago
No ask
2.25% or above
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 13 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.25% or above
- Last price
- 94%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- Volume
- $7K
4.75% or above88%88%24¢ bid, — askpolled, 13 min agoNo ask4.75% or above88%Kalshi 88%polled, 13 min ago
4.75% or above
88%
88%
24¢ bid, — ask
polled, 13 min ago
No ask
4.75% or above
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 13 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.75% or above
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- Volume
- $7K
4.5% or above83%83%24¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 13 min ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)4.5% or above83%Kalshi 83%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
4.5% or above
83%
83%
24¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
4.5% or above
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.5% or above
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $4K
2.5% or above81%81%81¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 13 min ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)2.5% or above81%Kalshi 81%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
2.5% or above
81%
81%
81¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
2.5% or above
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.5% or above
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $5K
5.75% or above79%79%16¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 13 min ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)5.75% or above79%Kalshi 79%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
5.75% or above
79%
79%
16¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
5.75% or above
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.75% or above
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $4K
6.25% or above79%79%— bid, 87¢ askpolled, 13 min ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)6.25% or above79%Kalshi 79%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
6.25% or above
79%
79%
— bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
6.25% or above
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.25% or above
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $4K
3.5% or above77%77%23¢ bid, — askpolled, 13 min agoNo ask3.5% or above77%Kalshi 77%polled, 13 min ago
3.5% or above
77%
77%
23¢ bid, — ask
polled, 13 min ago
No ask
3.5% or above
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 13 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.5% or above
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- Volume
- $9K
2.75% or above75%75%75¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 13 min ago84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)2.75% or above75%Kalshi 75%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
2.75% or above
75%
75%
75¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
2.75% or above
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.75% or above
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $12K
6.75% or above75%75%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 13 min ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)6.75% or above75%Kalshi 75%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
6.75% or above
75%
75%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
6.75% or above
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.75% or above
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
3.25% or above74%74%35¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 13 min ago74¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $135 (1.35x)3.25% or above74%Kalshi 74%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
3.25% or above
74%
74%
35¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
74¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $135 (1.35x)
3.25% or above
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.25% or above
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
- Volume
- $3K
7.5% or above74%74%19¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 13 min ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)7.5% or above74%Kalshi 74%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
7.5% or above
74%
74%
19¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
7.5% or above
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7.5% or above
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $4K
3% or above71%71%48¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 13 min ago73¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $137 (1.37x)3% or above71%Kalshi 71%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
3% or above
71%
71%
48¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
73¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
3% or above
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3% or above
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $5K
4.25% or above70%70%23¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 13 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)4.25% or above70%Kalshi 70%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
4.25% or above
70%
70%
23¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
4.25% or above
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.25% or above
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $3K
5% or above60%60%23¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 13 min ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)5% or above60%Kalshi 60%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
5% or above
60%
60%
23¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
5% or above
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $7K
5.5% or above59%59%44¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 13 min ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)5.5% or above59%Kalshi 59%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
5.5% or above
59%
59%
44¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
5.5% or above
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $7K
3.75% or above57%57%31¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 13 min ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)3.75% or above57%Kalshi 57%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
3.75% or above
57%
57%
31¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
3.75% or above
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.75% or above
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $4K
6% or above53%53%22¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 13 min ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)6% or above53%Kalshi 53%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
6% or above
53%
53%
22¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
6% or above
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6% or above
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $5K
6.5% or above52%52%11¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 13 min ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)6.5% or above52%Kalshi 52%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
6.5% or above
52%
52%
11¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
6.5% or above
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.5% or above
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.25% or above49%49%— bid, 88¢ askpolled, 13 min ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)5.25% or above49%Kalshi 49%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
5.25% or above
49%
49%
— bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
5.25% or above
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $4K
8% or above45%45%12¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 13 min ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)8% or above45%Kalshi 45%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
8% or above
45%
45%
12¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
8% or above
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8% or above
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $1K
7.25% or above43%43%43¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 13 min ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)7.25% or above43%Kalshi 43%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
7.25% or above
43%
43%
43¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
7.25% or above
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7.25% or above
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $5K
7.75% or above42%42%11¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 13 min ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)7.75% or above42%Kalshi 42%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
7.75% or above
42%
42%
11¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
7.75% or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7.75% or above
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $5K
4% or above41%41%41¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 13 min ago71¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $141 (1.41x)4% or above41%Kalshi 41%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
4% or above
41%
41%
41¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
71¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
4% or above
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4% or above
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $6K
7% or above36%36%23¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 13 min ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)7% or above36%Kalshi 36%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
7% or above
36%
36%
23¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 13 min ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
7% or above
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 13 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7% or above
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 13 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $7K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 2% or above
- 2.25% or above
- 4.75% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?". 2% or above leads at 98%. Next is 2.25% or above at 94%. $126K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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